Andreas Steno Larsen: Cold trade war, the American presidential election and central banks with climate on the agenda – all of it with a Covid-19 twist!

At the annual Cash & Treasury Management conference, Andreas Steno Larsen, Chief Global Strategist at Nordea Markets, gives you his assessments of the major policy implications for the Treasury function. In this post, you can read Andreas Steno Larsen’s elaboration of his talk.

The trade war has entered a cease fire ahead of the US election but we don’t buy the substance of the deal. China already clearly struggles to comply with the deal elements and the situation could easily escalate again very soon. The big question is whether Trump will get four more years, which will largely depend on his administration’s efforts to contain the Corona virus. So far Europe leads US in the “hammer and the dance” Covid-19 contest, but the second wave may be looming.

The green new deal is another hot topic in the Euro area and also among certain Democratic candidates in the US. Investors might want to front-run such green new deals – especially if they are financed via tax payer/central bank money. The European Central Bank will launch a strategic review and one of the key topics is how to support the green agenda via monetary policy. How can Corporate Treasuries position themselves in this question?

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